Is Carbon Capture the new Fusion? 

I’ve just finished reading Charles Seife’s “Sun in a Bottle” – an account of the first fifty years of nuclear fusion research.  It is a fascinating story, not least for the optimism that has driven research into fusion reactors.  At the start of that development, we were repeatedly told that fusion power might appear at five years notice, giving us energy that was “too cheap to meter”.  That last claim was made in 1954.  It was a great vision, which may yet come true, although I doubt that the “too cheap to meter” will ever happen, as there’s a lot of infrastructure needed to deliver electricity.  However, the prospect of fusion as our major source of electricity is still largely a dream. 

What struck me about much of the language used to promote the fusion dream over the last seventy years is that it is almost identical to the promises being used to sell the latest miracle technology – Carbon Capture and Storage.  Carbon Capture and Storage is being promoted as the means of saving the world from climate change with a similar evangelical zeal to the way that fusion was in the 1950s.  You could take any article or press release about either, swap the phrase “Nuclear Fusion” for “Carbon Capture”, or vice versa, and it would feel just as convincing.   Sadly, Carbon Capture’s imminent arrival is just as tenuous as that of nuclear fusion.  Its credibility is being held together by a mesh of minor achievements, suggesting that small academic advances will somehow scale into vast plants which will save us from climate change.  The same optimistic requests of “just a few more year’s work” and “just a few more hundred billions of investment” are blinding our technically-illiterate politicians into believing that the promise is real, without noticing that they are being fed the same story.  In the UK, Ed Miliband sees it as the saviour of his net zero plans.  The bad news is that he thinks he can make it happen by adding the billions of pounds of development costs to future domestic energy bills.

Read More

What if Moore’s Law is different in China?

Ever since the US started to place an embargo on supplying high tech chips and semiconductor production equipment to China, I’ve wondered what the ultimate effect of that policy would be;  in particular, whether it might be self-defeating.  We had the first intimation of this last September when Huawei’s launched their Mate 60 Pro phone.  It included a new 7nm processor, that appeared to compare favourably with the smaller geometry processors Chinese companies no longer had access to.  Last week we saw a second example, with the unveiling of DeepSeek’s R1 AI application, which seems to achieve similar results to ChatGPT, but using a fraction of the power.  That came as a bitter blow to the nascent VC funded nuclear industry, which had been angling for a future of fusion and fission powered data centres.  It also got Wall Street panicking about whether it might have misjudged the value of AI.

To anyone who has read Michael Rosen’s children’s book, “We’re Going on a Bear Hunt”, this news shouldn’t have come as a surprise.

Read More

The UK ponders Proportional Representation

On Thursday 30th January we are finally going to see a debate in Parliament about changing the UK’s “first-past-the-post” voting scheme, which will probably suggest some form of proportional representation, more commonly known as PR. 

Two years ago, when it was looking pretty certain that the Conservatives would lose the 2024 election, I wrote an article suggesting that Rishi Sunak should devote his final term to bringing in Proportional Representation.  If he had, we might have a very different Government to the one we have today.  In 2024, Labour won the election, gaining 411 seats with 33.7% of the votes,  The Tories slipped to 23.7% of the total votes, which gave them only 121 MPs.  One reason for their poor performance was that the right wing vote split between them and Reform, with Reform picking up 9 seats for 14.3% of the vote.  Had Rishi gone for Proportional Representation, and then found a way of working with Reform, their combined 38.0% of the vote would have given them 247 seats, compared to 219 for Labour. 

Read More

Welcome to the year of PC landfill

Now that we’re into 2025, Microsoft is ramping up its reminders that we only have nine months of Windows 10 support left, so now’s the time to go out and buy a shiny new Windows 11 PC.  The implication is that after 14th October, when security updates for Windows 10 stop happening, every hacker around the world will be stealing your data, turning this into the new Y2K disaster.  (For younger readers, Y2K was the belief that computers would stop working on Jan 1st, 2000, sending the world back to the stone age.)

So, we all need to plan for the W10 Armageddon, whether you’re a PC owner, a hacker, or just the manager of the local landfill tip. 

Read More

Hearing Aid Compatibility is coming for all US Phones

At the end of November, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the US issued a mandate that all mobile phones sold in the US will soon need to be able to work with hearing aids.  It’s a massive advance for hearing loss advocates and hearing aid manufacturers, who have been working towards this goal for more than a decade.  (The full mandate is available on the FCC site.)

Read More

The UK’s Heat Pump Strategy is in DEEP Trouble

Here in the UK, the Government is trying to persuade householders to replace their gas boilers with heat pumps.  It’s a key part of their net zero strategy, tackling the 13% of CO2 emissions that are attributable to gas-based home heating.  The “one size fits all” message is “Heat Pumps Good, Gas Boilers Bad”.  The Government has set a target of installing 600,000 heat pumps each year by 2028, rising to 1.6 million annually by 2028.  To help achieve this, they have introduced a Boiler Upgrade subsidy, but the latest Government statistics show that only 16,959 applicants have replaced an existing gas boiler with a heat pump since the scheme began in May 2022, which is a little bit short of the 1.4 million target for that period

These targets were set without much understanding of the difficulty or cost of retrofitting heat pumps.  Much of Britain’s housing is old and not very suitable for conversion.  Having set the policy, the Government initiated a major study in 2019 called DEEP – the Demonstration of Energy Efficient Potential, to provide evidence to justify it.  DEEP’s remit was to quantify the real effects, costs and returns of upgrading the structure of older houses.  They’ve just published the results, which basically says it’s not economic for these older properties.  It suggests that the payback time for heat pumps in older homes, along with the insulation upgrade to make them suitable is “generally over 100 years”.   So, where does that leave the plan?

Read More