Welcome to the year of PC landfill

Now that we’re into 2025, Microsoft is ramping up its reminders that we only have nine months of Windows 10 support left, so now’s the time to go out and buy a shiny new Windows 11 PC.  The implication is that after 14th October, when security updates for Windows 10 stop happening, every hacker around the world will be stealing your data, turning this into the new Y2K disaster.  (For younger readers, Y2K was the belief that computers would stop working on Jan 1st, 2000, sending the world back to the stone age.)

So, we all need to plan for the W10 Armageddon, whether you’re a PC owner, a hacker, or just the manager of the local landfill tip. 

In the past, replacing PCs was a fairly regular occurrence, but we’ve largely forgotten about that, both because the apps we use aren’t constantly needing more resources the way they used to, and also because our PCs last longer.  They’ve become a lot like domestic appliances – mostly reliable and relatively boring.  It’s not uncommon for them to last five years or more, when they only used to be with us for two.

So why do we need to change?  This has all come about because of security.  There’s no denying an ever increasing rise in all forms of hacking.  If Microsoft had thought more about security in the early days of Windows development, it wouldn’t be such a problem, but hindsight is a wonderful thing and we are where we are.  Criminal gangs and shady spyware companies have replaced the bored teenager in the bedroom, having discovered that phishing, shutting down businesses and subverting democracies can be very profitable occupations.

These new professions rely on historic mistakes and unintended consequences of the Windows operating system.  A host of anti-virus companies and regular Microsoft updates keep things safe for most of us, but the good guys (Microsoft in this case) need to up their game.  Windows 11 does that by interacting with a secure element in the main processor which confirms its identity.  The only problem for users is that it needs a new chip in your PC.  That’s not an upgrade, but a new PC.

Microsoft gave the industry plenty of warning, but forgot that our PC buying habits have changed.  The graph below shows what they thought would happen, which is that we’d all continue to buy new PCs the way we used to, migrating all of them from Windows 10 to 11 in the space of three years. 

That was the plan.  Instead, most of the PC world thought differently, with the majority of users still using Windows 10. 

This graph shows where we are today.  Windows 11 isn’t flavour of the month.  At the end of last year there was a drop in Windows 11 usage.  The assumption is that companies bought Windows 11 PCs and then downgraded them to Windows 10, because they were more comfortable with the devil operating system they knew.

How many PCs need replacing in 2025?

Despite the graphs above, nobody knows.  We’ve a pretty good idea of how many PCs are running Windows 10 and Windows 11, because when you connect to the internet and open your browser it checks and reports your operating system.  However, that doesn’t tell us whether the hardware of all of the PCs currently running Windows 10 is capable of running Windows 11.  Intel and AMD have probably shipped enough suitable chips, but if a company or individual hasn’t bought a new PC in the past few years, their PC is probably obsolete.  The industry estimate is that around 250 million PCs need replacing, but it’s just a guess.  Currently around 1 billion are still running Windows 10, so it could be a lot more.

The 250 million estimate is interesting, as last year, global PC sales were 245 million.  Assuming that those 245 million were normal replacements and not deliberate upgrades of older devices, then manufacturers won’t be able to cope with a spike in sales as the Windows 10 deadline approaches in October.  So, if you’re going to upgrade, don’t wait too long.  There could be a dearth of new PCs to purchase come October.

What do I do with my old PC?

We all know what to do, don’t we?  We take it to the WEE recycling centre, or return it to the store where we bought it.  Except we don’t.  The latest research from the Global E-Waste Monitor shows that we only recycle around 25% of computing devices.  The assumption is that the rest go into the bin.  Which suggests that several hundred million PCs are headed for landfill this year.

If you run or manage a landfill tip, make sure that everyone knows that you won’t be accepting PCs.  We really don’t want that 25% recycling figure to fall to 20%.  We could do with some public information campaigns to alert users to take them back to stores.

Before you recycle it

Make sure you save the licence keys for any applications you’ve installed, then remove all of your data.  Don’t trust a recycling centre to do this for you.  You wouldn’t give them your passport or credit cards.  Don’t give them an PC with your data on it.  If you have crypto-currency information on them, transfer it to your new PC, because councils really don’t like people trying to dig up abandoned laptops from landfill.

Lots of charities will probably accept working PCs, but might get overwhelmed.  In this specific case, don’t pass Windows 10 PCs on to kids and friends, as you don’t want them running a vulnerable operating system.  And beware of software offering to clean up Windows 10 PCs for you.  I’m sure there will be a host of scams where hackers promote malware designed to clean up your PC, but which send your personal data back to the hacker before deleting any evidence that you ever ran it.  Because, as we get closer to the W10 Armageddon, hackers will be waking up to the opportunities it presents.

The dilemma for hackers

It’s not just users who have the dilemma of affording a new PC.  There’s also the hacker who’s just discovered a major vulnerability in Windows 10.  What do they do?  If they deploy it now, Microsoft will probably send out a fix in an update before the hacker makes much money out of it.  But if they wait until October before releasing it, then the vulnerability may get fixed in the meantime, so they get nothing from it. 

However, the one thing we can be sure of is that hackers will be very aware of the opportunities that the W10 Armageddon presents. 

What to do

Microsoft is trying hard to persuade us of the benefits of Windows11 by promoting its new AI search capabilities, but the reality is more prosaic.  Windows 11 is more secure, and after 14th October, Windows 10 will be less secure.  Upgrading to a new PC is always a pain, but doing it because you’ve been hacked is much more painful, especially if your business is affected.  Whether you’re an individual or a small business, make a plan and start doing it.  And please don’t send the old one to landfill.  In the meantime, I’m off to buy a new laptop…